Karabakh War
On 10 November 2020, Armenians and Azerbaijanis woke to news that six weeks of bloody combat between their respective armed forces had ended. The fighting saw Azerbaijan regain control of about one third of the Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast and most of seven adjacent territories that Armenian forces had seized in the first Nagorno-Karabakh war a quarter-century earlier. Baku thus accomplished with force what it had been unable to do over 26 years of negotiations. A Russian-brokered ceasefire cemented Azerbaijani gains and set out the contours of a new South Caucasus order. One month on, that ceasefire has enabled the return of many displaced and the start of reconstruction. But major questions, including the issue at the core of the conflict, Nagorno-Karabakh’s long-term status, remain unresolved.
The first Nagorno-Karabakh war, which ended in 1994, ushered in an uneasy status quo that lasted for 26 years. The de facto leaders of Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been an ethnic Armenian-majority populated enclave within Soviet Azerbaijan, declared it independent, though it relied heavily on Armenia. Armenian forces took control of seven territories around the enclave, ensuring a land connection to Armenia on one side and buffers between Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan on the other. The war forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes: ethnic Azerbaijanis left Armenia and territory captured by Armenians, and ethnic Armenians fled Azerbaijan. In the ensuing years, the parties tried but failed to resolve the question of Nagorno-Karabakh’s status in talks, even as their armed forces periodically clashed. In Baku’s view, resolution meant the return of the breakaway region and adjacent territories, which the UN had affirmed were Azerbaijani under international law, to its control. Yerevan wanted de jure independence for Nagorno-Karabakh, which could then opt to join with Armenia.
The risk of military conflict is escalating in Nagorno-Karabakh, the border region claimed by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, due to the failure of mediation efforts, increased militarization, and frequent cease-fire violations. In late September 2020, heavy fighting broke out along the border — the most serious escalation since 2016. More than one thousand soldiers and civilians have been killed, with hundreds more wounded on both sides. Armenia and Azerbaijan initially rejected pressure from the United Nations and countries like the United States and Russia to hold talks and end hostilities, and instead pledged to continue fighting. Tensions escalated further when both sides switched from cross-border shelling to the use of longer-range artillery and other heavy weaponry. In early October 2020, Russia negotiated a cease-fire, which broke down; two additional cease-fires were negotiated by France in coordination with Russia and the United States, and then the United States directly. These cease-fires also collapsed almost immediately as fighting continued with reported violations by both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
In videos posted online on 22 November and 3 December, men in uniforms consistent with those of the Azerbaijani military hold down and decapitate a man using a knife. One then places the severed head on a dead animal. “This is how we get revenge — by cutting off heads,” a voice says off camera.
